The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas

What will the future of Texas be? Will its population continue to increase, and if so how rapidly and where will this growth be most extensive? Will its wealth increase with its population, or will per capita levels of income and wealth decrease? What are the opportunities and challenges state government is likely to face in the first decades of the twenty-first century?

A team led by State Demographer Steve H. Murdock examines these questions using new figures gathered in the decennial national census of 2000. From their analysis they are able to examine the effects of four major demographic trends that continue markedly to affect Texas and other parts of the nation. The New Texas Challenge explores:

· changes in the rates and sources of population growth

· the aging and age structure of the population

· growth in the non-Anglo population

· the changing composition of Texas households

The intent is both to provide an overview of how far Texas has come and to suggest where it may be going under conditions prevailing in the first years of this century.

STEVE H. MURDOCK, the official state demographer of Texas, is director of the Institute for Demographics and Socio-economics Research at the University of Texas at San Antonio.