Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais­ ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth­ quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster­ preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma­ jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro­ vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte­ gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.

This book provides the reader with a holistic approach to earthquake modeling and prediction. The lithosphere is studied as a hierarchical nonlinear dissipative system in which the predictability of earthquakes, aftershock activities and the variation of seismic activity is analyzed. More specialized models taking into account regional aspects are investigated. The reader will learn to pose the problem of earthquake prediction using a successive step-by-step approach, narrowing down the time interval, territory and magnitude range where a strong earthquake can be expected. The book is written for researchers in geophysics and applied mathematics but may also serve as an advanced textbook for graduate students wishing to enter the field.