The Nonlinear Gdp Dynamics and Basins of Behavior

Describing GDP as a superposition of waves, associated to the cyclic behavior of its components and applying an extreme action Lagrange formalism analysis and path integral calculation approach, it is shown that the GDP evolution is done through multiple equilibria and that the long term development cycles are shortened by nowadays short time cyclic processes. The capability to apply physical systems dynamic and the path integral method to the behavior of GDP and its components allows predictions of stable and unstable behavior. It is shown that before the crisis the finance is showing divergent (unstable) behavior that may become an indication of crisis onset. More research is needed on this approach but present results are promising.

Dr.Ionut PURICA is a senior researcher in the Romanian Academy National Institute for Economic Research. He had worked in the World Bank, ENEA and ICTP-Trieste, Italy, and RENEL Romania developing nonlinear models for energy systems development and economic decisions. He holds two PhDs: one in energy systems and the other in economics.