Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics, affecting all important issues of governance and policy. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding a range of complex and fundamental issues in both domestic and international politics.

About the Author

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla is the Professor of Computational Social Science, founding & former Chair of the Department of Computational Social Science, and founding & current Director of the Center for Social Complexity at George Mason University. He holds two doctoral degrees in Political Science and International Relations and his areas of expertise include quantitative, mathematical, and simulationmethods applied to complex human and social systems.
He teaches courses on Origins of Social Complexity, Complexity Theory for Computational Social Science, and Introduction to CSS. He has taught at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and University of Colorado at Boulder, holding visiting appointments and lectureships overseas. In 2002 he founded the Mason Ph.D. program in Computational Social Sciences, the first program in the country with this specific focus.
Dr. Cioffi's research on conflict, international relations, and social complexity has been funded by DARPA, NSF, ONR, NATO, and European research agencies. He serves at the State Department, Office of Geographic and Global Issues & Humanitarian Information Unit, as a Jefferson Science Fellow of the National Academy of Science since 2006, applying models of risk assessment and advanced social science methodologies. Elected member of the Cosmos Club of Washington, DC; President of the North American Association for Computational Social Sciences (2008-2010); and Executive Committee Member of the Human Relations Area Files at Yale University. Published five books and over seventy peer-reviewed publications. Appointed Associate Scientist by the Director of the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History since 2008.

His current projects include NSF- and DOD-funded research on complex crises and humanitarian assistance/disaster response. Dr. Cioffi lives in Washington, DC.

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