Pooled Testing for Hiv Prevalence Estimation Exploiting the Dilution Effect Classic Reprint

Excerpt from Pooled Testing for Hiv Prevalence Estimation: Exploiting the Dilution Effect

Estimation of the prevalence of hiv is important for evaluating the current status of the aids epidemic and planning effective intervention programs. However, precise estimates are very difficult to obtain because hiv infection is not associated with any clinical symptoms. Because the interval between the infection time and the onset of the clinical symptoms of aids is very long, the total number of aids cases does not provide information on the recent incidence of hiv. Consequently, population surveys are the primary mode of hiv prevalence estimation.

This method screens an unbiased population sample using an antibody test, such as elisa, and estimates the prevalence from the number of positive tests. However, even this method has its limitations. Because participants in a survey must give their prior consent, self-selection bias can occur that results in an underestimation of the prevalence (gill, Adler and Day Also, the number of-tests is frequently limited by financial constraints that adversely affect the accuracy of the estimates.

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