Possibility and Statistics: How to Use Data to Illuminate Pathways to Success

“Possibility and Statistics” (P.S.) is a rigorously ethical, mixed-method way of knowing that centers lived experience, assets, and human agency; treats oral narratives as primary data; and designs measures, tools, and dissemination practices to cultivate flourishing rather than manage risk. Ivory A. Toldson’s Possibility and Statistics is more than a book about statistical methods; it is a profound and necessary intervention into the soul of education and social science. It is a methodological treatise and a deeply personal work of literary scholarship that redefines the purpose of data in a world saturated with it. By developing a new statistical language, Toldson demonstrates that the principles of possibility―care, context, and potential―can be as analytically rigorous as the principles of probability.

Possibility and Statistics introduces a new analytical toolkit; formula-driven methods designed to quantify hope. Metrics like the Overcoming Adversity Index (OAI), which measures success relative to context; the Potential Realization Quotient (PRQ), which quantifies achievement beyond statistical expectations; and the Resource Parity Index (RPI), which measures inequities in resources, give practitioners tangible tools.

Toldson crafts a powerful argument that the tools of statistics, so often used to document despair and predict failure, must be re-engineered to architect hope and cultivate human potential. The result is a work that is at once a rigorous academic text and a moral call to arms for researchers, educators, policymakers, and anyone who wields data that touches human lives.

Ivory A. Toldson is a renowned scholar, a tenured full Professor of Counseling Psychology at Howard University, editor-in-chief of the Journal of Negro Education, and Chief of Research for Concentric Educational Solutions. Appointed by President Barack Obama, he previously served as the executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs and National Director of Education Innovation and Research for the NAACP. Dr. Toldson’s work consistently bridges rigorous, grant-funded research with a passionate commitment to social justice, challenging conventional narratives and advocating for asset-based approaches. He is ranked among the nation's most influential education scholars by Education Week.