Predicting Pretrial Failure: How Prior Criminal Record Outperforms Offense Severity

Predicting Pretrial Failure: How Prior Criminal Record Outperforms Offense Severity offers a timely and evidence-based examination of one of the most important questions in American criminal justice: what actually predicts whether a defendant will fail before trial? Drawing on data from the State Court Processing Statistics program and decades of research, Enrique Chavez, Stewart J. D’Alessio, and Lisa Stolzenberg show that prior criminal record is a far stronger predictor of pretrial rearrest and failure to appear than the seriousness of the current charge. Moving beyond conventional bail practices that rely heavily on offense severity and financial conditions, this book explores the historical development of bail, the constitutional and policy debates surrounding pretrial detention, and the real-world consequences of wealth-based detention for defendants, families, and communities. Combining rigorous statistical analysis with legal and policy insight, this book provides a clear and compelling case for a more accurate, fair, and evidence-driven pretrial justice system.