Preparing For Uncertainty: A Framework to Minimize the Impacts of Disasters and Societal Change

The last 75 years of relative peace is a cultural abnormality. The focus of this book begins with the events that have the highest likelihood of occurring in your daily life under current circumstances: house fire, financial distress, and crime. Then it moves on to what many today are considering our inevitable future: civil unrest, and gray zone warfare. The secondary effects of these are addressed in detail, including shelter, food, water, energy, security, communication, medical and sanitation with the understanding that most people live in an urban environment with no realistic plans of heading to the mountains when a crisis comes.

Using a series of contemporary disasters as an example this book will give you a practical step-by-step plan to increase your preparedness for disruptions, give you the tools to gather and analyze intelligence, and recognize when others are attempting to manipulate you.

Introduction

Immediate Action: Fire, Finance and Crime

Part One: Hurricane Hugo and Basic Disasters

Tier One Preparedness: Food and Water

Tier One Preparedness: Power

Part Two: Hurricane Katrina and Security Concerns

Tier Two Preparedness: Home Security

Tier Two Preparedness: Medical

Tier Two Preparedness: Communication

Part Three: East Palestine Ohio Train Derailment

Tier Three Preparedness: Area Study

Tier Three Preparedness: Planning Process

Tier Three Preparedness: Evacuation

Tier Three Preparedness: Bug Out Bag

Part Four: Civil Unrest

Tier Four Preparedness: Tactical Intelligence

Tier Four Preparedness: Signature Management

Tier Four Preparedness: Navigation

Tier Four Preparedness: Scouting and Patrolling

Part Five: Gray Zone/5th Generation Warfare

Information Warfare

Economic Warfare

Psychological Warfare

Political Warfare

Cyber Warfare

Kinetic Warfare

Characteristics of 5th Generation Warfare

Threats

Final Thoughts

Appendix A Sample Contingency Plan

Appendix B Sample Communications Plan

Appendix C Sample Evacuation Plan

Appendix D Useful Websites

Butch Trail is a retired Marine and has served in a dozen operations including combat and humanitarian missions. He has a Masters Degree in Business and Security Management, a Bachelor of Science in Social Psychology and has more than 30 years experience in security, disaster, and business continuity planning. He has been a survivor of a devastating major hurricane, several minor disasters, and volunteered at non-governmental organizations during significant disasters. He has been the planner, the responder, and the survivor.