Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods

Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations in situations where classical statistical analysis is difficult or impossible. This book discusses the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgment and uncertainty propagation.

Probabilistic risk analysis is applied in many areas of engineering. This book focuses on the conceptual and mathematical foundations of risk analysis. It differs from other books in this area first by discussing the meaning of uncertainty, and the extent to which one can use mathematical tools to model uncertainty. Second, a number of new modelling techniques are described. Finally, there is a good discussion of methods for quantifying the parameters in mathematical models, even where there is no 'classical' data available, by the use of expert judgement.