Probability of interruption and business impact: A mathematical approach to Business Continuity

Thinking outside the box is how new ideas, improvements and advances in business risk management occur. The same is true when translating knowledge of business risks to their potential impact on an organization’s ability to perform its key functions if risk events actually occur. It’s not uncommon when performing risk and business impact analyses to use subjective valuations, such as “low, medium or high” when computing the analysis results. Now it is possible to compute the risk and impact values using a well-researched set of mathematical formulas.In his new book, Alejandro Aristizabal Correa delivers a new approach – truly outside the box – that provides a deeper understanding of the mathematical relationships of risks and business impacts. More importantly, the book not only provides the mathematical basis for his breakthrough theories, it also puts Alejandro’s vision into terms that can be easily understood and actioned by senior management and risk professionals alike.PAUL KIRVAN

Alejandro Aristizabal was born (1972) in Medellín, Colombia,Graduated as Electronics Engineer and with a MSc in statistics. Initiallyreluctant to mathematics, discovered its importance in supporting severalarguments and conceptual modeling. He has been teacher of Digital Electronicsand Radiopropagation at USB Colombia.
He created a consultancy firm of IT, Risk Management andBusiness Continuity in 2012 with the purpose of providing new ideas andfundations to the concepts underlying the consultancy practices.
In 2018, when seeking a solution to calculate theprobability of interruption of organizational processes, he discovered theprobability distribution function to calculate the probability of events of anyvariable-rate process (Variable-Rate Probability Distribution - VRPD) alongwith another theorem and models during the research.
With more than fifeteen years of experience intelecommunications networks and Business Continuity in more than sixindustries, Alejandro Aristizabal is the author of "Probability ofInterruption and Business Impact", a book that approaches the BusinessContinuity from a mathematical perspective, including the fundamentals of RiskLevel calculations. The book includes its personal perspective on BusinessContinuity, but also the mathematics underlying the Evolutionary Processes'interruption, including some interesting discussions about the effects of anorganizational process' interruption as well as the application of the VRPDtheorem in reliability engineering.