Problems of Analyzing and Predicting Soviet Behavior Classic Reprint

Excerpt from Problems of Analyzing and Predicting Soviet Behavior

The historical approach can reveal similarities between the Soviet and earlier Russian regimes or it can demonstrate how the Soviet system is unique. Related to the historical approach is that of national character, which attempts to define those characteristic patterns of Russian behavior which have recurred in the past. The cultural approach, in general, has de ve10ped beyond the national character school, but in the study of the Soviet system the two are still quite closely related. The ideological pronounce ments of the Soviet leaders as well as earlier ideological writings are often regarded as providing a valid framework within which to comprehend the behavior of the Soviet leadership. Other means of studying the Soviet Union include the use of classical and modern Russian and Soviet literary sources or concentration on the purely institutional aspects of the regime. A more recent approach is that of the sociologists who are studying the Soviet Union in terms of such key strata as the intelligentsia and the pro fessions and such units as the family, the collective farm, and the industrial plant.

The decision to adopt a certain approach to the study Of the Soviet Union as well as the results of any such study will be affected by the kinds of explicit or (more often) implicit assumptions which are made. Various of these key assumptions concerning the Soviet Union will be examined in Chapters Two and Three, together with evidence which tends either to validate or to negate them. The pitfalls in estimating Soviet capabilities in the broadest sense of the word are also surveyed there, together with the kinds of sources and data which are available to us. Since various kinds of data present special problems of interpretation and analysis, certain of these are considered separately in Chapter Five.

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