Project Risk Quantification Volume 2: A Practitioner's Guide to Realistic Cost and Schedule Risk Management

Project Risk Quantification offers the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for project cost and schedule available today. It introduces proven, empirically validated methods and tools suitable for projects across all industries and decision gates. Designed for both managers and risk analysis practitioners, this essential resource equips readers with the knowledge to manage uncertainty effectively.

Volume 1, published in 2016, laid the foundation with a focus on risks and project costs for owners in the process industries.

Volume 2 expands the scope to address non-process industries and contractors, introducing tools like a "Rosetta Stone" for translating industry phase-gate designations. It also explores programs, portfolios, and investments with multiple options. Key additions include:

• A hybrid CPM schedule-based QRA method, supported by a detailed worked example (courtesy of Mr. Colin Cropley).
• Three case histories illustrating various methods in different contexts.
• Insights into ValidRisk® software supporting the book’s methodologies.
• A forward-looking review of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications in cost and schedule QRA.
• Sixteen new articles updating and broadening the content introduced in Volume 1.

Together, Volumes 1 and 2 provide a comprehensive toolkit for delivering reliable cost and schedule risk quantification across capital project organizations, regardless of industry or project phase.

John Hollmann is the owner of Validation Estimating, LLC, and a partner in the ValidRisk(R) software venture with Koff & Guerrero Consultants S.A. He collaborates with senior managers and project leaders to enhance practices in cost estimating, project controls, and cost/schedule risk quantification.Mr. Hollmann frequently conducts risk analyses to support investment decisions and helps organizations implement empirically-valid QRA methods. He is a prolific speaker and author and was the lead author and editor of AACE International's foundational Total Cost Management Framework. An Honorary Life Member of AACE International, Mr. Hollmann holds certifications as a Certified Cost Professional (CCP), Cost Estimating Professional (CEP), and Decision and Risk Management Professional (DRMP). He played a key role in developing the DRMP certification.Before founding Validation Estimating in 2005, Mr. Hollmann led cost engineering research and metrics initiatives at benchmarking firm Independent Project Analysis, Inc. Prior to that, his career included two decades of estimating, project control, and engineering roles in various industries with both owner and contractor organizations.