Reducing the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Alert Rate and the Impact on Maintenance Utilization: Wright Flyer Paper No. 26

We have been at war for four and one half years. The financial burden of executing Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom caused military services to undergo extensive cost cutting efforts. The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) community is not exempt. Recently, the Air Force Nuclear General Officer Steering Group (AFNGOSG) requested an additional study of lower missile readiness rates, presumably to identify any potential cost savings from reduced maintenance and security footprints. This research offers an initial study by analyzing the impact of lowered ICBM alert rates caused by not repairing off alert missiles until a lowered alert rate threshold is reached and any correlation to a potential decrease in daily ICBM maintenance team utilization. The intent of this research is to provide an analysis of the ICBM maintenance team utilization at the current ICBM alert rate and at lowered alert rates. Quantitative research methodologies are used to model historical ICBM maintenance data from the 341st Maintenance Group (MG) and simulate future maintenance team utilization at both the current and decreased ICBM alert rates. The results of this simulation and modeling show negligible savings in overall ICBM maintenance team utilization. One maintenance section under study showed a statistically significant but slight increase in team utilization as the alert rate decreased. Another section under study exhibited a slight decrease in team utilization deemed statistically significant, however, extremely hard to quantify as the increase in team utilization was only .62 percent. The remaining four maintenance sections under study had statistically the same team utilization at all alert rate levels.