Reflections on Net Assessment

Andrew W. Marshall founded the discipline and the office of net assessment. As Director, Net Assessment, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 1973 to 2015, Marshall advised eight successive presidents and thirteen secretaries of defense. He developed new analytic perspectives and techniques for analyzing long-term strategic competition and for understanding potential shifts in the future security environment. Under Marshall’s direction, the Office of Net Assessment accurately diagnosed the weakness of the Soviet Union years before its collapse, highlighted the potential implications of precision weaponry, pandemic disease, and environmental change, and anticipated China’s emergence as a strategic rival to the United States. Before joining the government, Marshall worked for the RAND Corporation, where he formulated his initial thoughts on strategic competition while focusing on nuclear strategy and the Soviet Union.

Reflections on Net Assessment captures Marshall’s thoughts on the creation and evolution of net assessment (the practice and the office) in his own words. The book is an edited version of a series of twelve interviews of Marshall conducted from 1993 to 1999 covering the years from 1950 to 1994. It is a first-hand account of the development of not only net assessment, but also of American strategic thought and the U.S. defense establishment. The intent is to get the thoughts of the father of net assessment into the hands of current and future practitioners and strategists.