During World War II and the Vietnam War, the primary focus of effort for air power was on the destruction of enemy factories producing military goods and the transportation networks that brought these goods and personnel to the battlefield. In the 1980's this changed due to the impact of COL (RET) John Warden's theory. Warden analyzed the enemy as a system and concluded that there were crucial elements of the enemy that would cause its defeat if destroyed. Warden concluded that the enemy's leadership was this crucial element. He explains his theory using a five-ring model in which the most important and most protected elements are in the middle and the other elements, in order of importance to the enemy, emanate in four more rings from this center ring. The four other rings, in order, are: the enemy's organic essentials (electricity, oil, and food); the enemy's infrastructure (roads, airfields and factories); the enemy's population; and the enemy's fielded forces. The implementation of this theory in both the Gulf War and during air operations in Kosovo created much controversy. This controversy centered on the lack of importance placed on the destruction of the enemy's fielded forces. The controversy that Warden's theory has produced in the past ten years is the reason for this monograph. This monograph determines whether Warden's theory is reliable based on five criterions. These five criterion are: its ability to provide a causal description of how and why air power can defeat an enemy; its ability to provide a verbal picture of what, when and where air power should be applied to defeat an enemy; its ability to provide foresight and foreknowledge of the future; its ability to provide the conceptual means to reduce the complex nature of an enemy into its constituent parts; and its ability to solve the problems that the United States faces. All five of these criterions had to be met for Warden's theory to be considered reliable. This monograph concludes that Warde
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