Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology: The Delphi Technique, Survey and Comment (Classic Reprint)

Excerpt from Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology: The Delphi Technique, Survey and Comment

It is important to note at the outset that the theoretical utility of Delphi is that it pools individual Opinions in order to develop forecasts which are more accurate than those of any average individual. This has been the major driving force behind its development.

The potential utility of Delphi, described above, was recognized by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer in 1951-1952. They were working for the rand Corporation and applied Delphi methodology to Air Force strategy problems in Project delphi Their work, however, was not oriented towards the timing or nature of future events, as we speak of these characteristics today.

Rather, they and other early developers were interested inpolicy formation research, operations research, and political gaming Some of these early uses were directed at: (l) estimating Soviet bombing schedules for u.s. Locations, in the case of war on July (2) predicting election outcomes; and (3) predicting u.s. Policy towards Communist China. Attempts we re also made to validate the methodology through almanac delphi forecasts, which are predictions made for questions with obscure but known answers.

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