Risk Thinking: In an Uncertain World

Our age of radical uncertainty requires a new way of assessing risk that pays more attention to the extreme outliers that too often become tomorrow’s reality.

Today’s models cannot cope with the frightening new unpredictable risks we face every day that frequently seem to come out of left field – the effects of climate change, a killer pandemic, a cascading wildfire, a financial crisis triggered by faceless algorithms, or a devastating cyber-attack that shuts down the electric power grid.

This accessible book advocates a new, more realistic approach to analyzing risk and strategizing—one that is less reliant on a single solution or unnuanced forecast. They help us look for the almost unimaginable situations that we cannot see.

The book targets non-technical and technical individuals who are faced with complex decisions. Here is what some thought leaders are saying about “Risk Thinking.”

“Had we central bankers employed Dembo’s risk thinking approach and analytical tools we could have avoided the Great Financial Crisis.” ̶ David Dodge, former Governor of the Bank of Canada

“A provocative and clear manual for anyone trying to assess risks today” -Gillian Tett, Financial Times, Editorial Board and Editor-at-large, U.S.

“Enjoy this book. It is insightfully written, fun to read and assess risks to navigating our uncertain future” -Col Chris Hadfield, engineer, test pilot and astronaut. Formerly Commander of the International Space Station, and Nasa Director of Operations in Russia.

“We can all think of major recent failures to manage risk: in the economy, financial services, health care and climate change….as the world becomes more complex, managing risk will become more important and more difficult. This book provides an effective and refreshingly practical framework for addressing this challenge”. -Mike Pedersen, Chairman Business Development Bank of Canada, Former President at and CEO, TD Bank, America’s Most Convenient Bank.

In Risk Thinking, Ron Dembo gives the reader tools to unravel the mysteries of risk in an accessible and eloquent way. This is a must read for any strategic thinker and emerging leader looking to thrive in an uncertain world.” ̶ Dr. Phil De Luna, Carbontech Innovator and selected as one of Forbes 30 Under 30.

Ron S. Dembo has been an Associate Professor at Yale, visiting professor at MIT, consultant to Goldman Sachs and other large corporations and banks, and author. He founded Algorithmics, which he grew to become the largest supplier of enterprise financial risk systems to banks before it was sold to Fitch and then IBM. He has published many articles in scientific journals and is the author of numerous patents worldwide. He was made a lifetime fellow of The Fields Institute of Mathematics in 2007 for his contribution to Canadian mathematics and has received many awards for his work in optimization, risk management and climate change. He is the founder and CEO of Riskthinking.AI, which produces data and analytics for measuring climate related financial risk.