Seeing the Future: How to Build Basic Forecasting Models

This book is written for business persons who wish to forecast consumer demands and sales. It is also designed for economic, financial, governmental, and private practitioners, who make decisions based on costs, benefits, economic trends, and growth. Finally, the book is written for first year MBA students, undergraduate students, and other readers who wish to acquire a fundamental knowledge of forecasting for the purpose of pursuing jobs in the fields of economics and finance, or for making personal plans for the future. The book emphasizes applied aspects of forecasting rather than theoretical aspects, so a working knowledge of high-school statistics and college algebra is all the mathematics that is needed. Because regression-based forecasts do not appear until the last three chapters of the book, knowledge of econometrics or time-series modeling is not a prerequisite. Additionally, although each chapter is designed to be self-explanatory, a basic understanding of econometrics might be helpful, but not necessary. The book discusses most of the forecasting methods frequently used in business and economics, such as time-series, demand and sales, investment, short-term planning, long-term growth, and regressions. To keep the book concise, only a brief introduction to the ARIMA process is introduced. Readers who wish to gain in-depth knowledge of ARIMA models are encouraged to read a book written specifically for time-series modeling.

Tam Bang Vu is a professor of economics and Interim Dean of the College of Business and Economics at the University of Hawaii-Hilo. She has published more than 30 articles in refereed journals during the past ten years, including papers in renowned journals such as Economics Letters, Applied Economics, Applied Economics Letters, Pacific Economic Review, and Journal of Asian Economics.

Tam Vu has been teaching quantitative methods for ten years, including both econometrics and forecasting courses. Her classes are open to both undergraduate and graduate students with an interest in business and economics. She holds a PhD and an MA in economics, an MM in piano performance, and two BAs in fine arts and architecture. She is also a graduate cooperating faculty at the University of Hawaii-Manoa.