Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

Robert J. Lempert; Steven W. Popper; Steven C. Bankes

ISBN 10: 0833032755 / ISBN 13: 9780833032751

Published by Rand Corporation., Santa Monica, CA., 2003

About this Item

Softcover 2003 edition. Text and covers in very good condition. Binding firm. Pages unmarked and clean. (198 pages).

Seller Inventory # 020256

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis
• Publisher: Rand Corporation., Santa Monica, CA.
• Publication Date: 2003
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0833032755
• ISBN 13: 9780833032751
• Binding: Soft cover
• Condition: Very Good
• Seller catalogs:
  • Environment

About this title

Synopsis

The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.

About the Author

Robert J. Lempert (Ph.D., Applied Physics, Harvard University) is a senior physical scientist at RAND. Dr. Lempert's recent work has focused on science and technology policy.

Steven W. Popper (Ph.D., Economics, UC Berkeley) is a senior economist in RAND's International Policy Department and serves as Associate Director of the Science and Technology Policy Institute.

Steven C. Bankes (Ph.D., Computer Science, University of Colorado) is a senior computer scientist at RAND. Dr. Bankes is the originator of the computational research methodologies known as "exploratory modeling," which provide a basis for studying complex, adaptive, and incompletely understood systems through computational experiments.