Signals: The Breakdown of the Social Contract and the Rise of Geopolitics

Economic signals are everywhere, from fashion magazine covers to grocery stores to military events. Malmgren empowers the public by revealing the story of the world economy in plain English. Central banks are trying hard to create inflation but say there is little chance it will happen, yet many feel their cost of living is already rising, especially in emerging markets. Who can fail to notice the rising cost of a steak, of chocolates, of apartments, of education, of healthcare or that prices are simply more volatile than in the past? The public should be more welcomed into the most important questions of the day: Is deflation or inflation the greater risk? Does inflation “fix” deflation? Both forces are now locked in an epic struggle. The conflicting pressures are now stressing and breaking the vital social contracts that exist between citizens and their states, setting in motion many seemingly unrelated outcomes: social unrest, the movement of manufacturing from emerging markets back to the US and the West, and even the near misses between the spy planes, fighter jets and naval vessels of the US, NATO, Japan, Russia and China. The one thing that can fix all this is innovation; acts of calculated risk taking that people undertake. Are governments hostile or hospitable to these already impressive efforts to build tomorrow’s economy today? Prediction, Malmgren says, is impossible, but, by being alert to the many signals around us, anyone can be better prepared to navigate through the troubles to the treasures of the world economy.

Dr Pippa Malmgren is a former presidential advisor and has served as the chief currency strategist for Bankers Trust and the deputy head of global strategy at UBS. She co-founded H Robotics, a firm which manufactures aerial robots, and DRPM, a consulting business. She serves on boards at the UK Department for International Trade, Indiana University and the Ditchley Foundation. In November 2016 she was named a non-executive director of the Department of International Trade. Malmgren is a frequent guest on the BBC, including Newsnight and the Today programme, and is a popular commentator and public speaker with the Financial Times, the Economist, Intelligence Squared and others. She lives in London. Find her on Twitter @DrPippaM