Snowball in a Blizzard: The Tricky Problem of Uncertainty in Medicine

320 pages. Cover wornThere's a running joke among radiologists: finding a tumor in a mammogram is akin to finding a snowball in a blizzard. A bit of medical gallows humor, this s imile illustrates the difficulties of finding signals (the snowball) against a b ackground of noise (the blizzard). Doctors are faced with similar difficulties e very day when sifting through piles of data from blood tests to X-rays to endles s lists of patient symptoms. Diagnoses are often just educated guesses, and prog noses less certain still. There is a significant amount of uncertainty in the da ily practice of medicine, resulting in confusion and potentially deadly complica tions. Dr. Steven Hatch argues that instead of ignoring this uncertainty, we sh ould embrace it. By digging deeply into a number of rancorous controversies, fro m breast cancer screening to blood pressure management, Hatch shows us how medic ine can fail--sometimes spectacularly--when patients and doctors alike place too much faith in modern medical technology. The key to good health might lie in th e ability to recognize the hype created by so many medical reports, sense when t o push a physician for more testing, or resist a physician's enthusiasm when unn ecessary tests or treatments are being offered. Both humbling and empowering, S nowball in a Blizzard lays bare the inescapable murkiness that permeates the the ory and practice of modern medicine. Essential reading for physicians and patien ts alike, this book shows how, by recognizing rather than denying that uncertain ty, we can all make better health decisions.…