Statistical Approach to Payload Capability Forecasting for Large Commercial Aircraft Operating Payload Range Limited Routes

S.A.H. Poprawa

Published by University of Pretoria, 2019

About this Item

2019 S.A.H. Poprawa (Pretoria, South Africa), 8 1/4 x 11 3/4 inches tall black hardcover, no dust jacket (as issued), gilt lettering to front cover and spine, printed only on recto side of each leaf, illustrated with black-and-white graphs in charts (some accented in color), 300 ff. Slight to moderate soiling, rubbing and edgewear to covers. Otherwise, a near fine copy - clean, bright and unmarked - of this scarce work. A rare engineering doctoral dissertation, not listed in OCLC. Note that this is a heavy and oversized book, so additional postage will be required for international or priority orders. ~X~ [4.5P] Large commercial aircraft by design typically are not capable of transporting maximum fuel capacity and maximum payload simultaneously. Maximum payload range remains less than maximum range. When an aircraft is operated on a route that may exceed its maximum payload range capability, environmental conditions can vary the payload capability by as much as 20%. Current forecasting approaches, using monthly average performance, often result in sellable seats remaining empty. Trip fuel requirements are nearly exclusively predictable by the average wind component for a given route. This study discusses a forecasting model which models average wind components through a sinusoidal function, reflecting the annual repetitiveness of weather patterns. Long term changes in weather patterns were also considered. Monte Carlo simulation was used to model the variance around the mean predicted by the sinusoidal function, as well as to model expected payload demand. The resulting forecasting model thus combines supply with demand, allowing the risk of demand exceeding supply to be assessed on a daily basis.

Seller Inventory # X-0922-12071

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Statistical Approach to Payload Capability Forecasting for Large Commercial Aircraft Operating Payload Range Limited Routes
• Publisher: University of Pretoria
• Publication Date: 2019
• Binding: Hardcover
• Condition: Very Good