printingsandremainstobeakeyreferenceonappliedstatisticalmodellingutilizing generalizedlinearmodels. Ludwigalsohadgreatin?uenceonthecreationofthe StatisticalModellingSociety,andiscurrentlyontheadvisoryboardofthecor- spondingjournalon StatisticalModelling. Boththesocietyandjournalemerged outoftheearlyGLIMworkshopsandproceedings. v vi Foreword Ofcourse,Ludwig sworkisde?nitelynotrestrictedtogeneralizedlinearmodels but onthecontrary spansawiderangeofmodernStatistics. Heco-authoredor co-editedseveralmonographs,e. g. onMultivariateStatistics,StochasticProcesses, MeasurementofCreditRisks,aswellaspopulartextbooksonRegressionandan IntroductiontoStatistics. Hisrecentresearchcontributionsaremostlyconcentrated insemiparametricregressionandspatialstatisticswithinaBayesianframework. When?rstcirculatingtheideaofaFestschriftforthecelebrationofLudwig s 65thbirthday,allpotentialcontributorswereextremelypositive,manyimmediately agreeingtocontribute. ThesereactionsatesttoLudwig shighpersonalandp- fessionalappreciationinthestatisticalcommunity. Thefarreachingandvarietyof subjectscoveredwithinthesecontributionsalsorepresentsLudwig sbroadinterest andimpactinmanybranchesofmodernStatistics. BotheditorsofthisFestschriftwereluckyenoughtoworkwithLudwigatseveral occasionsandinparticularearlyintheircareersasPhDstudentsandPostDocs. His personalandprofessionalmentorshipandhisstrongcommitmentmadehimaperfect supervisorandhispatient,con?dentandencouragingworkingstylewillalwaysbe rememberedbyallofhisstudentsandcolleagues. Ludwigalwaysprovidedafriendly workingenvironmentthatmadeitapleasureandanhonortobeapartofhisworking group. WeareproudtobeabletosaythatLudwigismuchmorethanacolleague butturnedintoafriendforbothofus. OldenburgandMunich,January2010 ThomasKneib,GerhardTutz Acknowledgements Theeditorswouldliketoexpresstheirgratitudeto allauthorsofthisvolumefortheiragreementtocontributeandtheireasyco- erationatseveralstagesofputtingtogetherthe?nalversionoftheFestschrift. JohannaBrandt,JanGertheiss,AndreasGroll,FelixHeinzl,SebastianPetry,Jan UlbrichtandStephanieRubenbauerfortheirinvaluablecontributionsinproof- A readingandcorrectionofthepapers,aswellasinsolvingseveralLTX-related E problems. theSpringerVerlagforagreeingtopublishthisFestschriftandinparticularNils- PeterThomas,AliceBlanck and FrankHolzwarthfor the smooth collabo- tion in preparing th emanuscript. vii Contents ListofContributors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix TheSmoothComplexLogarithmandQuasi-PeriodicModels . . . . . . . . . . 1 PaulH. C. Eilers 1 Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 DataandModels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3. 1 TheBasicModel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 3. 2 SplinesandPenalties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 3. 3 StartingValues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3. 4 SimpleTrendCorrectionandPriorTransformation. . . . . 8 3. 5 AComplexSignal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3. 6 Non-normalDataandCascadedLinks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3. 7 AddingHarmonics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4 MoretoExplore. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 5 Discussion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 P-splineVaryingCoef?cientModelsforComplexData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 BrianD. Marx 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
The contributions collected in this book have been written by well-known statisticians to acknowledge Ludwig Fahrmeir's far-reaching impact on Statistics as a science, while celebrating his 65th birthday. The contributions cover broad areas of contemporary statistical model building, including semiparametric and geoadditive regression, Bayesian inference in complex regression models, time series modelling, statistical regularization, graphical models and stochastic volatility models.
