Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Tetlock, Philip
ISBN 10: 1847947158 ISBN 13: 9781847947154
Published by Random House Books, 1871
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About this Item
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Synopsis:
Superforecasting
About the Author:
Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.
Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.
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Bibliographic Details
Title: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of ...
Publisher: Random House Books
Publication Date: 1871
Binding: Soft cover
Condition: Very Good
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Published by
Cornerstone, United Kingdom, London, 2016
ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Paperback. Condition: Very Good. The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Seller Inventory # GOR007690297
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Random House Books 07/04/2016, 2016
ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting
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Paperback. Condition: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G1847947158I3N00