Three Tweets to Midnight: Effects of the Global Information Ecosystem on the Risk of Nuclear Conflict

Can social media trigger nuclear war? In our “post-truth” era of bots, trolls, and intemperate presidential tweets, popular social platforms provide a growing medium for manipulation of information directed to individuals, institutions, and global leaders. Targeted influence campaigns have been waged in at least forty-eight countries so far. This volume examines the current reality from a variety of angles, considering how digital misinformation might affect the likelihood of international conflict and how it might influence the perceptions and actions of leaders and their publics before and during a crisis.

• Examine the impact of social media on nuclear conflict risk
• Minimize miscalculation and misperception in crisis decision-making
• Counter the manipulation of information in the global information ecosystem

The authors sound the alarm about how social media fuels information overload and promotes “fast thinking” over deliberation, with potentially catastrophic results for nuclear powers in times of conflict. This volume is the culmination of two multidisciplinary workshops produced in partnership between the Stanley Center for Peace and Security, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for International Security and Cooperation. For policy makers, security experts, and anyone concerned about global stability.

Harold Trinkunas is the deputy director of and a senior research scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

Herbert S. Lin is a senior research scholar for cyberpolicy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

Benjamin Loehrke is the program officer for nuclear policy at the Stanley Center for Peace and Security.