Tree Cover and Aridity Projections to 2060: A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Future projections of tree cover and climate change are useful to natural resource managers from the local to national level as they illustrate potential changes to our natural resources and the ecosystem services they provide. By understanding these potential changes, management strategies can be set to sustain desired levels of healthy natural resources for future generations. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, this report a) details three projections of tree cover change across the conterminous United States based on predicted land-use changes from 2000 to 2060; b) evaluates nine climate projections for the same period to assess which areas of the country may become more or less arid; and c) provides an index of combined tree-cover and aridity change for nine modeled projections to illustrate which areas of the United States are projected to experience the greatest impact from tree-cover loss and increasing aridity.