How Trump Happened: A System Shock Decades in the Making

The stunning 2016 election and presidency of Donald Trump was decades in the making. Three trends since the 1960s created the conditions for his triumph. First, a growing popular discontent with government, long evident in public opinion, created a widespread distrust of established leaders and institutions. Second, America underwent the rise of “professional government.” Governing professionals are an elite built on merit through occupational accomplishment. They now dominate interest groups, the bureaucracy, courts, presidency, and Congress. Many government professionals perceive little need to mobilize the public in the way parties did in previous eras. This has furthered the sense of disconnect among the public and created a self-reinforcing chain. Third, political parties and governing institutions are now polarized into rival teams of ideological, partisan elites. The intense battles between these divergent teams often result in government gridlock.

These conditions produce ripe opportunities for “outsider” candidates to mount popular movements against politics as usual.

How did Donald Trump leverage his outsider status into a 2016 electoral victory? Four factors propelled him into the White House. First, Trump’s long career as a public celebrity gave him an identity and “brand” widely known to the public and which generated massive free media coverage as a candidate. Second, Trump and his campaign ably used social media to further amplify his message. Third, decades of polarized political elites, governmental professionalism and mounting popular discontent made an “outsider” message attractive to millions of voters in 2016. Fourth, Trump was blessed with a political opponent, Hillary Clinton, who represented the polarized and professional governing class that Trump rightly saw as an inviting target for his outsider message and demeanor.

That is how Trump happened.

Steven E. Schier is Dorothy H. and Edward C. Congdon Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Carleton College, where he taught for thirty-six years. Twelve times he directed the Carleton in Washington program, an off-campus term of study he founded in 1983. Dr. Schier is the author, co-author or editor of twenty-two books. His most recent titles for Rowman are The Trump Presidency: Outsider in the Oval Office (2017), coauthored with Todd E. Eberly, Debating the Obama Presidency (2016), an edited volume, and Polarized: The Rise of Ideology in US Politics (2016), also coauthored with Todd E. Eberly.

Todd E. Eberly is professor of Political Science and Public Policy at St. Mary's College of Maryland. He specializes in contemporary American politics with a focus on the effect of polarization on voters, government, and governing. Professor Eberly's has written 4 books with Steven Schier of Carleton College. Their first book, American Government and Popular Discontent was released in June, 2013. Their second book, The Rise of Ideology in America, was released in 2015. Their third book, The Trump Presidency: Outsider in the Oval Office was published in September 2017. Professor Eberly is an advisor to Project Vote Smart and his analysis and commentary have been featured in the Washington Post, the Baltimore Sun, CNBC, and Public Radio/Television. He has served as an expert witness in cases challenging gerrymandered Congressional districts and has consulted with the centrist organization Third Way. He was named one of the most influential voices in Maryland politics by Campaigns and Elections magazine and the St. Mary's College Student Government Association honored him with the Faculty Student Life Award. He lives in Southern MD with his wife and two daughters.