Understanding Economic Forecasts (Mit Press)

ISBN 10: 0262083043 / ISBN 13: 9780262083041

Published by Mit Pr, 2001

About this Item

A copy that has been read, remains in good condition. All pages are intact, and the cover is intact. The spine and cover show signs of wear. Pages can include notes and highlighting and show signs of wear, and the copy can include "From the library of" labels or previous owner inscriptions. 100% GUARANTEE! Shipped with delivery confirmation, if you're not satisfied with purchase please return item! Ships via media mail.

Seller Inventory # OTV.0262083043.G

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Understanding Economic Forecasts (Mit Press)
• Publisher: Mit Pr
• Publication Date: 2001
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0262083043
• ISBN 13: 9780262083041
• Binding: Hardcover
• Condition: good

About this title

Synopsis

Historically, the theory of forecasting that underpinned actual practice in economics has been based on two key assumptions—that the model was a good representation of the economy and that the structure of the economy would remain relatively unchanged. In reality, forecast models are mis-specified, the economy is subject to unanticipated shifts, and the failure to make accurate predictions is relatively common.

In the last decade, economists have developed new theories of economic forecasting and additional methods of forecast evaluation that make less stringent assumptions. These theories and methods acknowledge that the economy is dynamic and prone to sudden shifts. They also recognize that forecasting models, however good, are greatly simplified representations that will be incorrect in some respects. One advantage of these newer approaches is that we can now account for the different results of competing forecasts.

In this book academic specialists, practitioners, and a financial journalist explain these new developments in economic forecasting. The authors discuss how forecasting is conducted, evaluated, reported, and applied by academic, private, and governmental bodies, as well as how forecasting might be taught and what costs are induced by forecast errors. They also describe how econometric models for forecasting are constructed, how properties of forecasting methods can be analyzed, and what the future of economic forecasting may bring.

About the Author

Neil R. Ericsson is a staff economist in the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC.