Understanding Schedule Forecasting Shortfalls in Federal Design-Build Facility Procurement

This research explores whether initial schedules provide reliable forecasting for project control in federal design build facility procurement. The purpose of this research is to understand how scheduling operates in the Department of Defense environment and identify how project change underscores schedule uncertainty. The research methodology involves a comparative analysis of project schedule data from three case studies. The investigation documents how initial project schedules fail to sufficiently forecast and provide a reliable baseline for total cost, final duration, and activity count for three design-build projects. Most schedule variability occurs after the 100% design benchmark. Furthermore, activity growth highlights the day-to-day scheduling challenges encountered by the construction managers and general contractors. The research is limited to three military construction projects managed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. Future implications resulting from the research include a call for reexamination of federal design-build schedule specifications and management practices in the pursuit of project control. Overall, the schedule analysis identifies shortfalls in activity-based scheduling and promotes an application of lean thinking in public sector construction management.