The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications

China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development. The goal is to make China a developed country, which would, among other things, raise the standard of living and prepare the base for a strong military. The Chinese leadership considers good relations with the United States to be strongly advisable, if not absolutely necessary, but sovereignty concerns (especially with regard to Taiwan) could cause tensions in the Sino-U.S. relationship. China could emerge, by 2015, as a formidable power, one that might offer an alternative to the current U.S. role as the region's preferred security partner and its ultimate security manager. At present, the best U.S. response appears to be a combination of engagement and containment, a congagement policy that would continue to try to bring China into the current international system while both preparing for a possible Chinese challenge to it and seeking to convince the Chinese leadership that a challenge would be difficult and extremely risky to pursue.

Zalmay Khalilzad (Ph.D., Political Science, University of Chicago) was formerly the leader of Project Air Force's Strategy and Doctrine Program at RAND. He was assistant undersecretary of defense for policy planning during the Bush administration. Khalilzad joined the White House staff on Monday, May 14, 2001, as special assistant to the president and senior director at the National Security Council.

Daniel L. Byman (Ph.D., political science, M.I.T.) is a policy analyst at RAND whose research interests include modeling ethnic conflict, assessing Middle East politics and security issues, developing countermeasures against terrorism, reevaluating air power theory, and other general issues related to U.S. foreign policy.

Roger Cliff (Ph.D., International Relations, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University) is an Associate Political Scientist, RAND, Washington DC. Areas of research include U.S. policy toward China, Chinese arms transfers, technological progress in China, and Chinese military technology.

DAVID T. ORLETSKY (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, SM, Aeronautics and Astronautics) is an Associate Engineer, at RAND, Washington, DC. His research interests include Chinese defense modernization; command and control sensor, weapon, and communication technology; and USAF operational analysis.