Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?: An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions

Executives routinely make major decisions in the face of high uncertainty. In fact, managing risk and uncertainty is one of the key functions of any senior manager. Techniques for estimating the probabilities of multiple scenarios (and the impact of those scenarios) have existed for years, yet many of the men and women in executive positions do not understand how to use the results of these analyses appropriately.This book supplies that understanding in language that non-statisticians can understand. The emphasis is on the practical; real-life examples illustrate the key points throughout the book. Example topics include: why major projects are so often late and over budget, when to spend money on more information (and when not to), the benefits of a risk-neutral approach, psychological weaknesses humans have when dealing with uncertainty, and tools to use and traps to avoid.

Pat Leach is the Chief Executive Officer of Decision Strategies, Inc. He is a recognized expert in risk management and strategy development. He has extensive international experience helping clients develop and implement creative strategic initiatives, probabilistic methodologies, and upstream energy projects. Before joining DSI in 2004, he worked for Texaco as a geophysicist, partner & government coordinator, and portfolio manager.

Mr. Leach has a BS in Geomechanics from the University of Rochester and an MBA from the University of Houston. He currently resides in Missouri City, TX. An excellent communicator and teacher, he has added millions of dollars in value to clients projects through employee training, process facilitation, VOI analysis, and stochastic modeling. He has worked for years with a broad variety of teams around the world to achieve business objectives. A highly sought speaker, Patrick was a Society of Petroelum Engineers Distinguished Lecturer during the 2012 13 season.