The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World

In 1957, Robert Rubin took a class as a college sophomore, and it changed his life. The professor's name was Raphael Demos and the subject of the class was an introduction to philosophy. But what Professor Demos was really teaching his students, and what struck Rubin so profoundly, was how to think about thinking itself. The realization that would stay with Rubin for the rest of his life, guiding him on a glittering career to the heights of both finance and politics, was that there is no such thing as certainty. Uncertainty is everywhere and we must learn to live with it, if we hope to succeed. But what does this really entail at a time when decision-makers in both government and business are faced with a series of worsening and often interlocking crises? How can we make good decisions in the face of severe political turmoil, a burgeoning and existential climate crisis, and confronted with the lingering threat of global pandemic? In other words, how can we make good decisions when the stakes are desperately high? In The Yellow Pad, Rubin sets out a number of methods and processes that have guided him through moments of high-stakes crises, sharing with the reader fascinating and thrilling stories from the halls of power in Washington and on Wall Street. He offers both qualitative and quantitative ways of sifting through difficult economic and social problems, the sum of which is an enthralling and original intellectual framework that can be applied to both the most global universal problems as well as the more quotidian dilemmas we all face in our personal lives. Rubin speaks generously and with hard-won wisdom across generations and the political divide, engaging with the most contested and emotional issues of our times, and seeking to propose realistic policy solutions to move society forward without leaving anyone behind.…