American Renaissance : Our Life At the Turn of the 21st Century / Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies

Written by two of America's leading forecasters, this controversial yet well-documented book presents a provocative, upbeat vision of the U.S. in the upcoming century when work and education methods will change considerably

If Cetron and Davies (coauthors of The Great Job Shakeout ) are correct, the U.S. by the year 2000 will see many dramatic changes: a large, prosperous, expanding middle class; decreased crime, possibly achieved through legalization of drugs; a 32-hour week, with nearly one-fourth of Americans working at home via computer hook-up to main offices. The authors predict a rebirth of grassroots activism, full-scale environmental clean-up, health insurance for all citizens, massive funding for education. Some of their prescriptions sound simplistic (e.g., ending homelessness by forgoing rent control, so that builders will glut the luxury housing market and thus be forced to turn their attention to the middle class and poor). In each of 22 areas--from the elderly to AIDS, religion and U.S.-Soviet relations--the authors extrapolate from current trends, adding a dash of optimism and creative thinking. First serial to Longevity and Omni; Fortune Book Club main selection.
Copyright 1989 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Cetron and Davies see the future through a rose-colored crystal ball: This uncritical and unfailingly optimistic bundle of predictions covers politics (the GOP keeps the White House), science (computers get smaller), medicine (AIDS cured), the environment (cleaned up), business (high-tech jobs), and religion ("right-wing" churches in, women in--the pulpit). Most assumptions are based either on a heartwarming faith in the "American way" (current problems in education will be straightened out because it is imperative that they be addressed), or on a scalding conservatism that runs through this book like an undertow (terrorists will not attack the U.S. Congress, because "the liberal Democrats on the Hill may be the only force that prevents the extreme right wing from immediately destroying several troublesome countries in the Middle East"). Mostly a manifesto for wishful thinking, with little objective support for the forecasts, and on the hard questions, like the drug problem, they waffle. No seers here.Fortune Book Club.
- Mark L. Shelton, Columbus, Ohio
Copyright 1989 Reed Business Information, Inc.