An Approach to Model Validation and Model-Based Prediction--Polyurethane Foam Case Study; SAND2003-2336

72, [2] pages, including covers. Illustrations (some with color). References. Mailing label on back. Staplebound. Unlimited Release. Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift towards the use of computational methods has brought with its new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report the authors have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing on model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application.…