Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Language: English
Published by Dutton, 2011
- First Edition
- Hardcover
- Used
Seller: JARE Inc. dba Miles Books, Highland, IN, U.S.A.JARE Inc. dba Miles Books
AbeBooks seller since July 21, 1998
Condition: Used - Very good
US$ 5.50
Quantity: 1 available
Add to basketItem description from seller
Book is clean and tight. Ex Lib with minimal markings. 320 p.
Seller Inventory # be186
- Title
- Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
- Author
- Gardner, Daniel
- Publisher
- Dutton
- Publication year
- 2011
- Condition
- Very Good
- Dust jacket
- Very Good
- Book Type
- Book
- Binding
- Hardcover
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 0525952055
- ISBN 13
- 9780525952053
- Edition
- 1st Edition.
- Printing
- 1st Printing
In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Author
"About the title" may belong to another edition of this title.
JARE Inc. dba Miles Books
Highland, IN, U.S.A.
AbeBooks seller since July 21, 1998
Shipping rates within U.S.A.
| Item | 5 to 7 business days | 3 to 6 business days |
|---|---|---|
| First item | US$ 5.95 | US$ 11.00 |
Payment methods
- Check
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Store description
Miles is a general independent bookstore located approximately 30 minutes away from Chicago, Illinois. We have over 40,000 hardbacks and paperbacks in our store. Reflecting the reading tastes of our market area, we have titles in many categories. Presently, we are continuing to expand our selection of Modern First Edition Hardbacks and our Science Fiction/Fantasy section. Besides our unique selection of used/rare titles in the store, we are also known for being able to order for our customers any book in print quicker than the chain stores. Thank you for visting us electronically. Perhaps one day when you are in the area we will meet in person.…
Specialty
Modern 1st editions, Science Fiction/Fantasy Paperbacks, General out of print hardbacks, Cookbooks, Military, Children's, Art, Poetry, Religion, AmericanaSeller's business information
JARE Inc. dba Miles Books
2819 Jewett Ave.
Highland, IN U.S.A. 46322
Terms of sale
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