MICHELL, John. An Inquiry Into the Probable Parallax and Magnitude of the Fixed Stars From the Quantity of Light Which They Afford Us, pp. 234-264 [And:] WINTHROP, John. Cogitata de cometis, communicated by Benjamin Franklin, pp. 132-154, in: Philosophical Transactions, vol. 57, part I, for the year 1767 (complete journal volume). BOOLE'S INSPIRATION TO STUDY PROBABILITY

MICHELL, John; WINTHROP, John

Published by London: Davis & Reymers, 1768

First edition of the first application of statistics to astronomy. "Michell's published scientific work, which earned him election to the Royal Society in 1760, covered many subjects, including the cause of earthquakes (1760), observations of the comet of January 1760, a method for measuring degrees of longitude 'upon parallels of the Equator' (1766), and an independent discovery with Coulomb of the torsion balance (1784). His greatest accomplishments were two investigations published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: 'An Inquiry Into the Probable Parallax and Magnitude of the Fixed Stars From the Quantity of Light Which They Afford Us, and the Particular Circumstances of Their Situation' (1767) and 'On the Means of Discovering the Distance, Magnitude, etc. of the Fixed Stars' (1784). In the first of these papers, Michell pointed out that the frequency of the angular separation of close pairs of stars known at that time deviated grossly from what one could expect for chance projection of stars uniformly distributed in space - there appeared to be an excessive number of close pairs and, according to Michell: 'The natural conclusion from hence is, that it is highly probable, and next to a certainty in general, that such double stars as appear to consist of two or more stars placed very near together, do really consist of stars placed nearly together, and under the influence of some general law . . . to whatever cause this may be owing, whether to their mutual gravitation, or to some other law or appointment of the Creator.' The directness of Michell's language perhaps leaves something to be desired; but the unimpeachable logic of his arguments gave a convincing theoretical proof of the existence of physical binary stars in the sky long before Herschel (1803) provided a compelling observational proof" (DSB). Michell's paper is also notable for having indirectly initiated George Boole's study of the theory of probability. "Michell's argument was widely accepted. Not until some 80 years later was it (the argument, not the conclusion) vehemently objected to by J. D. Forbes (1850). His paper analyses Michell's argument at great length, describing fallacies he finds and, incidentally, some errors in the probability calculations" (Halperin, Boole's Logic and Probability, p. 355). "In 'On the Theory of Probabilities, and in particular on Mitchell's Problem of the Distribution of the Fixed Stars', published in the Philosophical Magazine in June 1851, Boole remarks: 'My attention has lately been directed to a communication by Professor Forbes, in the Philosophical Magazine for December 1850, entitled 'On the alleged evidence for a physical connexion between stars forming binary or multiple groups, deduced from the doctrine of chances'. I have read Professor Forbes' observations with great care and interest; and desire, both because the subject of them is important, and because it is closely related to a class of speculations in the pursuit of which I have long been engaged, to offer a few remarks which have been suggested to me by the perusal of the paper.' This seems to have been the first mention, by any author, of the close connection, both in essence and in form, between logic and probability and indeed of the dependence of the theory of probability on an underlying mathematical theory of logic" (MacHale, George Boole, pp. 239-240). Winthrop's paper was his most original contribution to speculative astronomy. In it he suggested new methods for determining the mass and density of comets. 4to, pp. xii, 553, [3], with 21 plates (numbered I-V, Va, VI-XX). Contemporary calf (worn, joints cracked but holding, one label missing, the other chipped). Very good condition internally. Seller Inventory # ABE-1606679791924

Bibliographic Details

Title: MICHELL, John. An Inquiry Into the Probable ...
Publisher: London: Davis & Reymers
Publication Date: 1768
Binding: Hardcover
Condition: Very Good
Edition: 1st Edition