Prebisch Singer Hypothesis and Terms of Trade in New Century

Contents: Preface. 1. Raul Prebisch thesis I (1949). 2. Prebisch thesis from 1949 to 1959. 3. Development of general thesis from 1961 to 1965. 4. Technical progress, distribution of gains from productivity improvement and relative price of exportables. 5. Prebisch terms of trade models. 6. Hans Singer on the distribution of gains between investing and borrowing countries. 7. Hans singer on terms of trade revisited and beyond. 8. The Newer Hitech critiques of prebisch singer thesis. 9. Prebisch singer hypothesis in new century. 10. Legacy of Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer. 11. Neither commodities not manufactures: trends in country terms of trade. 12. Problems in formal modelling: terms of trade as development indicator. 13. Growth with limited export demand and unlimited supplies of labour yields vent for surplus results. 14. Growth with limited exports and exogenous employment: an interpretation of the Prebisch Singer Thesis. 15. Estimating the Prebisch singer model for Brazil. Bibliography. Prebisch and Singer found a fall in the prices of developing countries primary commodities relative to those of British manufactured goods. From their work three branches of literature emerged. First a statistical debate did arise in regard to the question whether or not developing countries terms of trade are really falling. Second a series of theoretical models were developed in which terms of trade changes over time could be explained. Third the policy consequences of falling terms of trade were discussed mainly the question whether a fall in the terms of trade should lead to industrialization policies. Our paper tries to contribute to the first branch of literature. The aim of the book is to cover the history of economic thought the evidence and the theorizing of the Prebisch singer thesis. jacket. …