Trading on Expectations

Successful traders know that before stepping into the wilderness ofthe speculative markets, you need a solid understanding of basicmarket behavior. But the conventional methods often fall short ofproviding this basic knowledge. Academics assert one thing,economists and fundamental analysts another, and technicianssomething altogether different. And, seemingly, none of them agreewith each other.

Trading on Expectations explores the ideas behind the dominantschools of analysis, and shows the validity of each anddemonstrates how each, albeit at different times, reflects what themarket is doing. Sometimes market prices can be predicted using theeconomists' models; sometimes prices follow a "random walk" as theacademics claim; at other times price is responding to thepatterns, trendlines, and breakout levels identified bytechnicians.

In this groundbreaking new book, Brendan Moynihan draws on hisexperience as a trader, analyst, and researcher to develop a methodthat focuses on the prime mover of prices and incorporates thestrengths of the conventional methods. Drawing on theparticipant-focused Chicago Board of Trade Market Profile and thepsychologically focused Contrary Opinion, he synthesizes andmodifies the best in these different methods and skillfully createsa single model of market behavior --the Sentiment-ActivityModel.

Moynihan carefully describes how the combination of participants'actions and expectations about the future determines the directionof prices in the markets. This dynamic interaction between actionsand expectations explains the emergence of the dominant phases ofthe markets: price trends, trading ranges, and trend reversals.What's more, Moynihan's unique model enables you to pinpoint thecombinations of activity and sentiment that determine the threestates of the market as they unfold, in time frames ranging from asingle day to several weeks or months. The Sentiment-Activity Modelalso provides a way to determine how the market is likely torespond to various news items, explaining the apparent anomalies ofprice behavior in the process. To document his finding, Moynihanprovides illuminating applications over a multimonth time period tofour markets: Treasury bonds, soybeans, deutsche marks, and crudeoil.

Offering a new, more powerful way of understanding the dynamics ofmarket behavior, Trading on Expectations is a must-read for alltraders in stocks, options, and futures.

"Brendan Moynihan has studied the 'real' economists and found thetruth about how human action and individual motivations determinemarket prices. Trading on Expectations combines the best of thetraders' economic and technical tools. I recommend this book toanyone who wants to learn how to trade more successfully." --BrianS. Wesbury Chief Economist Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompsonand former chief economist Joint Economic Committee of the UnitedStates Congress

"In today's fast-forward society, readers of this book can quicklyabsorb the real essence of Trading Reality that takes years tounderstand. In fact, many traders have come and gone withoutrealizing how successful traders operate. It could take years togather the perspectives of this book. The Hightower Report plans touse the book for training its analysts!" --David C. Hightower,Editor The Hightower Report

"Where most market texts simply reheat and serve the same oldapproaches, Trading on Expectations offers a fresh perspective bycombining the best of several market disciplines into a logicaltheory and workable system for trading all financial markets."--Michael Zentz Director of Fixed Income Research PegasusEconometric Group

BRENDAN MOYNIHAN is a foreign exchange trader at First American National Bank. He has worked as a commodities trader, a cash bond trader, and a risk management consultant to several Fortune 500 companies. He designed an economics course for Vanderbilt University and is currently writing a textbook based on the course.