Future Tense : Preparing for the Business Realities in the Next Ten Years

A customized report analyzing significant American and global trends, from the Institute for the Future (IFTF) of Menlo Park, CA. Morrison (president, IFTF) and Schmid (IFTF) investigate issues such as the older and more educated consumer, the globalization of local markets, the decline of consumer brand loyalty, failing institutions, enabling technologies, and the public's demand for accountability in business. Annotation copyright Book News, Inc. Portland, Or.

A panoramic audit--more notable for length than depth--of the forces that could shape the business world, and middle-class lifestyles, over the next decade or so. Consultant Morrison (president of the California-based Institute for the Future) and his associate focus on seven developments deemed to be producing fundamental, even convulsive, change in the commercial climate. These range from the arguably obvious (the aging of America's baby-boom generation, advances in technology) through the ominously psychological (social insecurity, the quest for accountability). By way of example, the authors observe that an older, wiser (i.e., better-educated) work force is making increasingly complex demands on employers at the same time that US industry is downsizing or restructuring and institutions (schools, political parties, the military) have less influence with their traditional constituencies. While Morrison and Schmid concede that no one can predict precisely what lies ahead, they assert, plausibly enough, that those who review the possibilities will be in a better position to exploit opportunities or at least avoid pitfalls. The authors offer soothing, if general, counsel on how best to respond to the challenges of a premillennial era. For- profit enterprises are enjoined to genuinely care for the hired help, view knowledge as more precious than capital, and enhance their strategic vision; individuals are directed to consider the rewards of anticipatory initiative. However, absent from the welter of short-take wisdom on leveraging resources, self-realization, the information revolution, and other trendy topics is any systematic evaluation of bioscience, drug abuse, nationalism, terrorism, and allied agents of instability. Nor do Morrison and Schmid address the problems attendant to retaining a competitive edge with a domestic work force whose lower echelons are increasingly illiterate and innumerate. At best, a sketchy guide for those seeking perspectives on potentially earthshaking swings in the socioeconomic order on the eve of the 21st century. -- Copyright ©1994, Kirkus Associates, LP. All rights reserved.

Morrison and Schmid of the Institute for the Future, a California think tank, parlay some well-accepted trends into a discussion of what went wrong and what we can do about it. Identified as key driving forces in business are current demographics, the sense of insecurity people feel toward both government and corporations, the search for authority, and new technologies, among others. Yet, they argue, business has only developed partial, mainly ineffective solutions, leading to downsizing, the fragmentation of purpose and vision, and the "commoditization" of products and services. The true answers? Put people's needs first, keep the organization's focus clear, and treat workers, shareholders, and customers the same way. Barbara Jacobs

Following in the tradition of Alvin Toffler (Future Shock) and John Naisbitt (Megatrends), Morrison and Schmid envision tomorrow at the doorstep. Even if their projections are wrong, many of their insights give pause for reflection. Consider this thought: "Reengineering is Taylorism applied to white-collar jobs." The authors bring forth the reality of "virtual companies" as both a pipe dream and a dream come true. For the more traditional companies, they condense the requisite traits (reasoning, communication, cross-cultural skills, global experience, team orientation, technological literacy, track record of achievement, and quick study) needed to compete in the marketplace. The book holds few surprises for those who have kept abreast of the diverse literature; nevertheless, the information and contextual references are on the mark. Recommended for business collections.
Steven Silkunas, Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority, Philadelphia
Copyright 1994 Reed Business Information, Inc.