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Synopsis
Paperback. Pub Date :2013-01-05 Publisher: Penguin Books US Every time we choose a route to work. decide whether to go on a second date. or set aside money for a rainy day. we are making a prediction about the future . Yet from the global financial crisis to 911 to the Fukushima disaster. we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise. the New York Times political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction. revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball.In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data. Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters. in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table. from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success And why do so many predictions still fail By analysing the rare prescient forecasts. and applying a more quantitativ...
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Review
Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell
About the Author
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
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