The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities: Obtained Through Decomposition (Classic Reprint) - Hardcover

Don N. Kleinmuntz

9780267969777: The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities: Obtained Through Decomposition (Classic Reprint)

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0267969775 ISBN 13: 9780267969777

Publisher: Forgotten Books, 2018

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How breaking down tough chances can sharpen judgments.

This book explains a structured way to turn messy uncertainty into reliable probability estimates by decomposing the problem into smaller parts.

It compares decomposition with direct assessment, using a psychometric framework to measure where random errors come from and how to reduce them. The discussion covers how to choose background scenarios, how to combine conditional probabilities, and how to assess the reliability of different elicitation methods. The goal is practical guidance for analysts who encode subjective probabilities in risk and decision models.

Understand how decomposition can reduce the cognitive load of difficult judgments
Learn when and how to apply conditional and marginal probabilities for better consistency
Explore factors that influence the reliability of probability encodings
Gain practical recommendations for structuring and evaluating elicitation tasks

Ideal for readers involved in decision analysis, risk assessment, and applied statistics who want a rigorous, yet practical approach to probability elicitation.

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