Introduction
Section A. Likelihood
1. Whose car?
2. Bayes' Rule
3. Track Record
4. Game Show
5. Margin of error
6. Five thoughts about likelihoods
Section B. Base rate7. Diagnosis
8. Information
9. Being careful about base rates
10. Independence
11. Review
Section C. Application
12. Who Wrote That?
13. Wood, Trees and Wildlife14. Radiocarbon dating
15. Bayes and the Law
16. The Selection Task
Conclusion
A formula for Bayes' Rule
Notes
"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
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