Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403) - Softcover
Synopsis
This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.
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Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403)
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Predictive Behavior
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Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (witha total of 167 independent subjects) on forecastingbehavior. In all experiments, the time series to beforecasted was generated by an abstract econometric modelinvolving two or three artificial exogenous variables. Thisdesignprovides an optimal background for rationalexpectations and least-squares learning. As expected, thesehypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behaviorsatisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack ofrationality are studied: Concentration on changes ratherthan levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation ofvolatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior isobserved. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts suchas prominence of 'round' number, dispersion, etc.,arestudied. 244 pp. Englisch. Seller Inventory # 9783540573111
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Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems)
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Predictive Behavior
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Condition: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (witha total of 167 independent subjects) on forecastingbehavior. In all experiments, the time series to beforecasted was generated by an abstract econometric modelinvolving two or three arti. Seller Inventory # 4894271
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Predictive Behavior
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Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware -This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (witha total of 167 independent subjects) on forecastingbehavior. In all experiments, the time series to beforecasted was generated by an abstract econometric modelinvolving two or three artificial exogenous variables. Thisdesignprovides an optimal background for rationalexpectations and least-squares learning. As expected, thesehypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behaviorsatisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack ofrationality are studied: Concentration on changes ratherthan levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation ofvolatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior isobserved. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts suchas prominence of 'round' number, dispersion, etc.,arestudied.Springer-Verlag KG, Sachsenplatz 4-6, 1201 Wien 244 pp. Englisch. Seller Inventory # 9783540573111
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