The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.

Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

About the Author

Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Store Description

ThriftBooks is a fully independent seller of used books, having sold more than 160 million used and new books since we started in 2003. Each quality used book is sorted, graded, shelved and shipped by hand by our team of dedicated employees in our seven warehouses across the US. We have the best selection of books, in the right condition and format, at everyday low prices. We also have a dedicated, US-based Customer Service team, ranked in the top three by Newsweek for Best Customer Service in 2018 and 2019, so you can shop with confidence. We support and invest in our employees, appreciate and value our customers, and truly believe in the power of the written word to educate, energize, and engage readers of all ages and interests.

Visit Seller's Storefront

Seller's business information

Thrift Books Global, LLC
18300 Cascade Ave S, Ste 150, Seattle, WA, 98188, U.S.A.

Sale & Shipping Terms

Terms of Sale

We guarantee the condition of every book as it's described
on the Abebooks website. If you're dissatisfied with your
purchase (Incorrect Book/Not as Described/Damaged) or if the
order hasn't arrived, you're eligible for a refund within 30
days of the estimated delivery date. If you've changed your
mind about a book that you've ordered, please use the "Ask
bookseller a question link to contact us" and we'll respond
as soon as possible.

Shipping Terms

All domestic Standard shipments are distributed from our warehouses by OSM, then handed off to the USPS for final delivery.

2-Day Shipping is delivered by FedEx, which does not deliver to PO boxes.

International shipments are tendered to the local postal service in the destination country for final delivery – We do not use courier services for international deliveries.

Shipping rates within U.S.A.

Shipping rates within U.S.A.
Order quantity	4 to 8 business days	4 to 8 business days
First item	US$ 0.00	US$ 0.00

Delivery times are set by sellers and vary by carrier and location. Orders passing through Customs may face delays and buyers are responsible for any associated duties or fees. Sellers may contact you regarding additional charges to cover any increased costs to ship your items.