The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

Nate Silver

ISBN 10: 1846148162 / ISBN 13: 9781846148163

Published by Penguin Books, Limited (UK), 2012

About this Item

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Bibliographic Details

• Title: The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
• Publisher: Penguin Books, Limited (UK)
• Publication Date: 2012
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1846148162
• ISBN 13: 9781846148163
• Binding: Soft cover
• Condition: Good

About this title

Synopsis

The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction is a book that explores the method of predicting events, which ones are correct predictions, which are not and how people land on the right predictions. The book is written especially for those who desire to understand how foresight is prevalent in almost every sphere of human lives. The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction breaks down the various methods and means of prediction into a comprehensive form of patterns, portraying them in a rational and scientific manner. Moreover, the book also explores how we are able to make simple predictions in our everyday lives, for instance, deciding which routes avoid due to traffic when travelling to work. The book also discusses the idea that while we are fairly successful in making small predictions that affect our daily routine, we still somehow fail to foresee the big picture. The author cites the examples of the events of 9/11 and the fukushima disaster to point out the failure in our abilities to foresee such huge events. The book was published by penguin uk in 2012 and is available in paperback. Key features: the book reached the new york times bestseller list for nonfiction and was the #1 best nonfiction book on amazon. Com in 2012. It has been published in eight languages.

Review

Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell