Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

Uncertainty's importance in the problems of risk and policy analysis is explained by outlining its source and nature, discussing techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment and reviewing methods of analyzing uncertainty.