Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets (Classic Reprint) - Hardcover

Andrew Wen-Chuan Lo

 
9780266502036: Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets (Classic Reprint)

Synopsis

Learn how to build portfolios that maximize predictability of returns across stocks, sizes, and sectors.

This book examines how constraint settings and return horizons shape the most predictable portfolios. It explains how portfolio weights change when you look at monthly versus annual returns and why larger stocks can dominate predictability over longer horizons. The text also shows how easing or tightening shortsales constraints affects portfolio composition and risk.

Readers will see concrete methods for testing predictability, including Monte Carlo simulations and out-of-sample evaluations. The discussion covers statistical significance, data-snooping, and practical measures to gauge economic value from predictive models.

  • How horizon length alters the drivers of predictability and the portfolio mix.
  • The impact of shortsales constraints on weight allocation and results.
  • Techniques to assess predictability beyond in-sample results, including out-of-sample tests.
  • Practical steps to interpret and apply maximal predictability findings in asset groups (SBU, SIZE, SECTOR).

Ideal for readers of quantitative finance and investment strategy.

"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.