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Excerpt from Risk Analysis of Training Programs in Emerging Occupations<br/><br/>Typically eu educational institution designs a new program by copying existing educational programs. A secondary vocational school offers a two to four-year program during the day for teenagers and employs full-time faculty. A community college or technical institute designs two-year full-time programs for high school graduates using full-time faculty. When the manpower needs in an occupation are well-known, copying existing programs can be effective design. However, in an emerging occupation the number of people needed in five to ten years is difficult to estimate. Estimates can be wrong by a factor of two-to five. With such great uncertainty, design of the education_program by tradition may create large economic risks.
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